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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 71

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A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (Y)is related to the number of employees (X)by the regression equation Y = 3.3 + 0.049 × X.R-Square is 0.68.The regression is based on 20 annual observations.The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year.How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast?

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Y = 3.3 + 0.049 × 480 = 3.3 + 23.52 = 26...

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Question 72

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A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain.Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed,a forecast of 172 items for that period,and a smoothing constant of 0.3,what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.

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166.6;161.2 The larger the smo...

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Question 73

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A trend projection equation with a slope of 0.78 means that there is a 0.78 unit rise in Y for every unit of time that passes.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

Identify four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

Identify four quantitative forecasting methods.

Distinguish between a moving average model and an exponential smoothing model.

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

The last four weekly values of sales were 80,100,105,and 90 units.The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks)were 60,80,95,and 75 units.Calculate MAD,MSE,and MAPE for these four weeks.

Linear regression is known as a(n)________ because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,135,and 130.The average over all months is 160.The approximate seasonal index for July is:

The tracking signal is the

Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system.

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the

If a forecast is consistently greater than (or less than)actual values,the forecast is said to be biased.

The forecasting time horizon and the forecasting techniques used tend to vary over the life cycle of a product.

What is the key difference between weighted moving average and simple moving average approaches to forecasting?