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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 71

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Use linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on sales of caskets.

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A) Develo...

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Question 72

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When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.

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Question 73

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A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

The sample standard deviation of forecast error is equal to the square root of MSE.

Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below.Is the forecast performing as well as it might? Explain.

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short term forecast performance?

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (de-seasonalizing) can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

The degree of management involvement in short range forecasts is:

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand.The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand.The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

Develop a linear trend equation for the data on bread deliveries shown below.Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14.

A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product: Y_t = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last year Quarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2. What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year?

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Develop a forecast for the next period, given the data below, using a 3-period moving average.